In our quest for value at the racetrack, it may help if we understand a little bit about the stock market. Utilizing my background as a stockbroker, I will draw some parallels between the stock market and the pari-mutuel “market” or betting pool. When I am done, I hope that you will have gained some new insights on how to discover inefficiencies in the betting pool.
Most of us have heard the anecdote about the chimpanzee that outperformed some of Wall Street’s top money managers by throwing darts at the stock pages of a newspaper. The point is to illustrate that at any given moment a stock’s price is the best measure of its value and that all the efforts of analysts to discover undervalued stocks are useless. This is the basis for the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).
The EMH explains that all available information that affects the price of a stock is known to, and continuously analyzed by, investors, and that this information is immediately evaluated. So, at any given moment, a stock is efficiently priced, which signifies that its price reflects all the facts, opinions and expectations that have an impact on its value. The EMH contends that undervalued stocks do not exist precisely because so many investors work so hard at discovering them.